There is an adage in China that "Don't afraid the cloud which blocks your lines of sight when you want to look into the distance. Because the distant scenery is worth being appreciated no matter what difficulties will we meet". Facing the growth of Chinese economy, it is difficult for Western observers to maintain such attitude--When Chinese booming economy continually grows at an annual rate of more than 10 percent, they consider such situation is fascinating and tense and then conclude a view known as "Chinese Economy Threat"; In contrast, when the growth rates keeps at 6.9 percent, they hold their bearish and short position and then point out "Chinese Economy Crisis" opinion.
However throughout the past 30 years, western observers who are pessimistic for China's developing have proved wrong, and soon after the voice of betting against China will peter out into a historical footnote.
Why do some observers get used to keeping downbeat tone of growth of China? Are they not familiar with China? Or do they have an ulterior motive behind? I argue maybe both factors generate the phenomenon and even both of them are too confused to differentiate. As a result, we are supposed to distinguish and analysis western opinions carefully.
On the one hand, we need to push back forcefully against those who misreadChina maliciously. On the other hand, it's acceptable for us if some observers express well-meaning concerns on Chinese economy. These years, with the rapid development of China, its economy fluctuation has been considered to have a direct and significant influence on western westerners' vital interests. This phenomenon causes the extensive concern, and some of them include friendly and sincere points. For these people, we need to strengthen communication and clarify confusion each other. Both kind reminders and sincere advices contribute to facing economic challenge and keeping sustainable development.
About four years ago, Nouriel Roubini--many people call him "Dr Doom"--came up with a devastating prognosis on China's economy and its economic growth pattern. He believed that China would probably have a hard landing in 2013.But in fact, China's economy has not suffered the crisis as he ever predicted.
Recently, George Soros--"Financial Giant"--expressed his bearish attitude at the Davos Forum, claiming that "China's economy is heading for a hard landing". However such kind of voice is not the mainstream over the Davos Forum. Klaus Schwab--founder of Davos Forum--have opposite opinions. He thinks there is equivalence between China's GDP increment at the 6.9% growth rate and a full-year GDP in Switzerland. Now the rate of global economy growth decrease to 3 percent, which is slower than the rate in 2008—5%.China undergoing the economic transition will have an optimistic foreground in a long term. Jim O'Neill, creator of the "BRIC" concept, insisted in London recently that China's 2015 GDP increment (at the 6.9% growth rate) was very considerable. While China's economic structure is experiencing a delightful change.
In fact, thinking globally, there are only two countries--China and India--catching the rate of more than 6 percent in 2015. However the scale of economy in India is about one fifth of it in China. It is conservatively estimated that Chinese economic contribution to growth rate of global economy makes up more than twenty-five percent. Although the international oil price is falling, China should not be responsible for it. Because its crude imports didn't show a sharp decline. In terms of commodities, China's import of soybean increased by more than 44 percent in 2015. We can pay attention to one thing: on November 11th of 2015, the amount of sales on Taobao and Tmall, which are two most popular shopping websites in China, reached to 91.217 billion RMB. While on the similar shopping day--Black Friday--in the United States, the sales amount only takes up 19 percent, compared with China.
Western observers who hold a bearish attitude pay attention to issues and challenges of China's economy instead of its achievements. As a matter of fact, continual improvement and optimization from institution to policy indicate the everlasting tenacity in China's economy. At the same time, the transformation of economic structure is being propelled steadily and then it will lay a solid foundation for the heady growth of global economy. In addition, it is the gradual enhancing of international production capacity cooperation that offers a huge investment opportunity for countries all over the world. And our industrial structure is further optimized. As data displayed, in 2015, tertiary industry's growth value accounts for 55% of GDP, which surpasses the objectives of the 12th Five-Year Plan. Beyond that, our mainland investors realize an accumulative total investment of 735.08 billion Yuan, with year-on-year growth of more than 14.7 percent. Obviously, China is still an incentive source of global economy instead of a source of crisis. The generally steady China's economy--which combines progress、innovation、excellence with stabilization together--contributes to helping the global economy get out from plight.
